The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) has published its State of the World Population Report 2025 themed “Real fertility crises: The pursuit of reproductive agency in a changing world.” This report highlights the significant decline in global fertility rates and emphasizes the growing gap between women's reproductive aspirations and societal expectations.

Key Highlights:

• Global Fertility Trends:

  • The global fertility rate has decreased from approximately 5 children per woman in 1960 to 3.3 in 1990, and it is projected to be 2.2 by 2024.
  • More than 50% of countries, representing over two-thirds of the global population, now have fertility rates below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman.
  • It is anticipated that all countries will have fertility rates below 4 by 2054.

• Fertility Rate in India:

  • India's fertility rate has witnessed a decline from 2.9 in 2005 to 2.0 in 2020.
  • The child population under five peaked in 2004, and those under fifteen peaked in 2009.

• Survey Data:

  • A survey by UNFPA and YouGov involving over 14,000 participants from 14 countries revealed unmet reproductive aspirations:
    • In India, approximately 36% reported unintended pregnancies, and over 30% faced challenges in having children when desired.
    • National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5) shows 9.4% of married women (ages 15-49) have an unmet need for family planning.

Challenges Identified:

• Economic and Social Barriers:

  • Respondents cited financial insecurity, unemployment, inadequate housing, and limited childcare access as significant obstacles.
  • Social norms and dynamics often impose unequal responsibilities on women within relationships.

• Women's Burdens:

  • Women in India continue to bear the burden of domestic responsibilities while facing barriers to career advancement, particularly concerning pregnancy and childcare policies.
  • Many working women in the informal sector lack supportive workplace policies like paid parental leave.

• Infertility and Health Care Access:

  • Infertility, often stigmatized in India, restricts reproductive choices, compounded by barriers to accessing treatment, which is predominantly provided by private entities.

Changing Patterns of Childbearing:

• There is a trend toward later childbearing, especially among educated, high-income Indian women marrying later and having first children in their late 20s or 30s. However, practices around spacing and issues concerning family planning remain inadequately addressed.
• NFHS-5 notes that 4% of married women aged 15-49 report unmet needs for spacing due to social preferences for male children and contraceptive use stigma.

Summary of Global Population Concerns:

• There exists a growing demographic anxiety, characterized by fears surrounding aging populations and declining fertility rates, which are often misattributed to women rather than state policies or planning failures.
• The report stresses the necessity for a shift in narrative, emphasizing the importance of catering to individual reproductive desires within a human rights framework, to build demographic resilience.

Recommendations:

• It is essential to improve access to modern, reversible contraception to empower individuals in making informed reproductive choices.
• The stigma surrounding family planning discussions must be dismantled to promote women's reproductive autonomy and facilitate equitable family planning and social structures.

In conclusion, the UNFPA's report advocates for recognizing and addressing the unmet reproductive aspirations and challenges faced by women, particularly in a rapidly evolving socio-economic landscape. This involves centering reproductive policies around individual needs rather than merely controlling demographic outputs, promoting a future that values dignity and reproductive rights.

Important Points:

• UNFPA’s report focuses on reproductive agency amid declining fertility rates globally.
• India's fertility rate fell from 2.9 (2005) to 2.0 (2020), with significant variation across states.
• Economic security and societal norms hinder reproductive aspirations in India.
• More than 36% of Indian survey respondents reported unintended pregnancies.
• Supportive policies for women in the workplace are lacking, contributing to unmet reproductive needs.
• A shift in narrative is needed to focus on individual aspirations and rights in family planning.

The Indian Union Government's Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, represented by Secretary Saurabh Garg, is set to revise the base year for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) calculations, shifting it from 2011-12 to 2022-23. This change is part of ongoing updates to key economic metrics and is scheduled for release on February 27, 2026. The revisions will also extend to the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), which will adopt a base year of 2022-23, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which will use 2023-24 as its new base year.

Key Facts:

• Base Year Change: The current base year for GDP is 2011-12; it will change to 2022-23.
• Release Date: Revised GDP data will be published on February 27, 2026.
• Other Metrics: IIP will also switch to a base year of 2022-23, while CPI will revise to 2023-24.
• Historical Context: This will be the eighth revision of the GDP base year since the process began in 1949.

Historical Revisions Timeline:

1. 1948-49 to 1960-61 (August 1967)
2. 1960-61 to 1970-71 (January 1978)
3. 1970-71 to 1980-81 (February 1988)
4. 1980-81 to 1993-94 (February 1999)
5. 1993-94 to 1999-2000 (January 2006)
6. 1999-2000 to 2004-05 (January 2010)
7. 2004-05 to 2011-12 (January 30, 2015)

Rationale for Revisions:

• To reflect changes in the economic landscape and improve accuracy in estimating the state of the economy.
• The revisions will help policymakers and economic agents understand economic conditions more effectively.

Challenges in GDP Calculation:

• GDP is a complex measure, that includes only final goods and services, necessitating robust and accurate data.
• Changes in the economy's structure, including shifts from agriculture to services (now accounting for 55% of GDP), require different methodologies for GDP estimations.

Previous Failed Revisions:

• There were plans to revise the base year to 2017-18, but it was dropped due to data quality issues and shifts in economic performance following major policies like demonetization and the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST).

Importance of Upcoming Revision:

• The 2026 revision is crucial as India approaches the position of being the third-largest economy globally.
• Critiques of India’s previous GDP estimations, particularly following the 2015 revision, have raised concerns over credibility.
• The upcoming revision must ensure data accuracy to restore trust with investors and the global community.

Conclusion: India's GDP revision is a pivotal move aimed at reinvigorating confidence in national economic indicators, especially in light of past controversies surrounding economic data reliability. As India prepares to solidify its position in the world economy, the precision and trustworthiness of the new GDP figures will be under significant scrutiny.

Important Points:

• GDP base year changing to 2022-23; data release on February 27, 2026.
• Other metrics' base years also being revised; IIP (2022-23), CPI (2023-24).
• Eighth revision since national income estimation began in 1949.
• Regular revisions capture economic shifts and enhance data accuracy.
• Challenges include data complexity and historical economic structural changes.
• Failed attempts to revise to 2017-18 due to data quality issues.
• Upcoming revision critical for restoring credibility in India's economic data.

Summary of the News Article on the Nowgam Railway Station and the Vande Bharat Express

On June 10, 2025, the atmosphere at Nowgam railway station, located in Srinagar, is marked by the pleasant summer sun and the station's unique architectural elements reflecting Kashmiri culture. The double-storey station, officially inaugurated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on June 6, features the Vande Bharat Express, which connects Srinagar with Katra. This rail service is expected to bolster national integration, enhance trade and tourism, and empower economic growth in Jammu and Kashmir.

Key Points

• Location and Significance: Nowgam station is situated at 1,730 meters above sea level, just nine kilometers from Lal Chowk, Srinagar's city center.
• Inauguration: The Vande Bharat Express was inaugurated on June 6, 2025, serving as a critical link between Kashmir and the rest of India.
• Travel Improvements: The new railway service reduces travel time from Srinagar to Katra from 24 hours to about 13 hours over a distance of 191 kilometers.
• National Project: The rail link project began in 1994 and was declared a national project in 2008, with a total expenditure of ₹43,780 crore on the 272-km Udhampur-Srinagar-Baramulla rail link.
• Historical Context: Before the railway connection, Kashmir's access to the rest of India depended on treacherous roads, primarily the 294-km NH 44, and the Mughal Road inaugurated in 2009.
• Safety Concerns: There has been a significant number of fatalities on NH 44, highlighting the danger of land travel, with approximately 1,750 deaths recorded from 2010 to 2020.
• Engineering Feats: The train journey includes engineering marvels such as the Anji Khad cable-stayed bridge and the Chenab Rail Bridge, which boasts the world's highest railway arch bridge, 359 meters above the riverbed.

Economic Impact

• Impact on Apple Production: Jammu and Kashmir's apple production in 2024-2025 reached 20.56 lakh metric tonnes, with 13.13 lakh metric tonnes exported by February 2025. The improved connectivity is anticipated to facilitate quicker access to markets for apple growers.
• Tourism Prospects: The new rail link is expected to boost tourism, which could see a major uptick following recent security concerns in the region. Increased connectivity will encourage both local and international tourists.

Government and Official Comments

• Railway Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw emphasized the project overcame numerous challenges imposed by the difficult Himalayan terrain and highlighted its significance for strategic and military needs.
• Safety measures are prioritized, with infrastructure capable of withstanding severe weather conditions and potential terrorist threats.
• The train's connectivity is touted as instrumental for both ordinary Kashmiris and the broader economic landscape by enhancing trade and travel efficiency.

Demographics and User Experience

The train service caters to a diverse range of passengers, including students, families, and businesspeople. For many, it is their first experience on a train. The journey offers scenic views of Kashmir's landscape, enhancing passengers' travel experience.

Future Considerations

With the expectation of increased footfall, there are calls for upgrades in tourism infrastructure in the Valley. Local stakeholders express hope that the new railway will rejuvenate the economy and open new pathways for youth employment and educational opportunities.

In conclusion, the Vande Bharat Express represents a strategic advancement for Jammu and Kashmir, fostering socioeconomic growth, safety, and integration with the rest of India.

Important Sentences

• The Vande Bharat Express significantly reduces travel time from Srinagar to Katra, enhancing connectivity.
• The rail project started in 1994 and was declared a national project in 2008, costing ₹43,780 crore.
• The train’s engineering includes marvels such as the Chenab Rail Bridge, which is the highest railway arch bridge in the world.
• The new railway service is expected to boost apple production and tourism in Jammu and Kashmir.
• Railway Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw stresses the project’s significance for strategic, military, and economic needs.
• Safety measures have been prioritized to address potential threats from terrorism and extreme weather conditions.
• Passengers express excitement for their first train ride, indicating a cultural shift towards rail travel for ordinary Kashmiris.

Summary of Retail Inflation Data and RBI Policy Outlook

In May 2025, India's retail inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), experienced a significant decline, recording a multi-year low of 2.82%. This figure marks the lowest inflation rate since February 2019, indicating a favorable trend in consumer pricing.

• Latest Inflation Data: The National Statistics Office (NSO) reported that retail inflation averaged just under 3% for the quarter of April-May 2025.
• RBI Expectations: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had previously anticipated first-quarter inflation around 2.9%, aligning with current data.

The decline in inflation has been largely attributed to a significant moderation in food prices, particularly:

• Food Inflation: The food price index saw reductions of 13.7% in vegetable prices and 8.22% in pulses. However, certain categories, such as oils, fats, and fruits, still faced double-digit inflation rates.

The agricultural sector showed robust growth of 4.6% in the previous year, leading to beneficial outcomes for the rabi crop. However, the forthcoming performance of the kharif crop will heavily depend on the Southwest monsoon, which has thus far exhibited a rainfall deficit of 33% below its long-term average as of June 12.

• Monsoon Impact: The onset and progress of the monsoon rains will be crucial for determining food output and subsequent prices.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and fuel components, has remained stable at approximately 4.3%. Nevertheless, high inflation persists in the personal care and effects category.

Global Influences on Inflation: Analysts at Nomura noted several factors affecting inflation trends, including:

• Lower global commodity prices
• Increased reliance on imports, particularly from China
• Weak domestic economic growth
• Muted second-round effects regarding household inflation expectations and wage growth.

Retail inflation has successfully stayed below the RBI’s target of 4% for a consecutive four months. In response to economic conditions, the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) lowered the benchmark repo rate by 50 basis points, cumulatively reducing the rate by 100 basis points since February 2025, bringing the repo rate to 5.5%. Additionally, the cash reserve ratio was also lowered by 100 basis points to facilitate better monetary policy transmission.

• Monetary Policy Implications: Despite these adjustments, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra pointed out that the scope for further monetary policy support is limited.

Current projections suggest that inflation may gradually rise throughout the year, averaging approximately 3.7%, while some analysts anticipate even lower figures.

• Future Policies: The MPC is expected to adopt a cautious approach in its upcoming decisions, awaiting greater clarity on monsoon conditions, which are critical for food crops and inflation management.

In conclusion, the trajectory of prices and economic growth will play a pivotal role in shaping the RBI’s future policy actions. Greater insight into these elements will emerge in the forthcoming weeks as seasonal weather patterns unfold.

Key Points:

• Retail inflation at multi-year low of 2.82% in May 2025.
• Average inflation below 3% in April-May quarter, in line with RBI's expectations.
• Significant declines in food prices; vegetables down 13.7% and pulses 8.22%.
• Reliable agricultural growth at 4.6% last year.
• Monsoon performance critical for kharif crop outcomes.
• Core inflation stable at 4.3%, high in personal care categories.
• RBI has reduced repo rate by 100 basis points since February.
• Projections suggest inflation may rise to 3.7% this year.
• MPC to monitor weather impacts before further policy action.

The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) is set to implement a structured unified payment interface (UPI) address mechanism for its registered intermediaries, aimed at enhancing investor protection and combating unauthorized fund collection. This initiative comes in response to the increasing threat posed by unregistered entities in the stock market, which have misled investors by collecting funds illegally.

Key Details of the Initiative:

• Introduction of New UPI Mechanism:

  • SEBI will introduce a structured UPI address mechanism featuring a unique handle with the suffix “@valid.”
  • The handle will be allocated exclusively for payment collection by registered intermediaries, managed by the National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI).

• Registration and Identification:

  • The UPI handle will consist of a readable name chosen by the intermediary with an appropriate category suffix (e.g., .brk for brokers, .mf for mutual funds).
  • A unique visual cue, a “thumbs-up inside a green triangle” icon, will be displayed to signify a legitimate registered intermediary during transactions.

• Implementation Deadline:

  • Both the new UPI mechanism and a verification tool called 'SEBI Check' are scheduled to be rolled out by October 1, 2025.

• Objectives of the New UPI IDs:

  • Aimed at significantly improving investor confidence and safety by minimizing impersonation and ensuring funds are transferred securely.
  • Designed to provide a proactive approach in detecting and preventing fraudulent activities.

Regulatory Framework:

• Mandatory Requirement:

  • All registered intermediaries must obtain the new validated UPI IDs, which they are required to make known to investors.
  • Investors will, however, have the option to choose their preferred payment method (e.g., UPI, IMPS, NEFT, RTGS, or cheque), but are encouraged to use the new UPI IDs specifically for transactions with registered intermediaries.

• End of Existing IDs:

  • Payments via existing UPI IDs will cease to be accepted after the cut-off date of October 1, 2025, although already ongoing mutual fund systematic investment plans (SIPs) can continue under the old mechanism. New SIPs, or the renewal of existing ones, must employ the new IDs.

Introduction of ‘SEBI Check’:

• Verification Tool:
  • SEBI is developing the 'SEBI Check' feature, which will allow investors to authenticate UPI IDs and bank details either through scanning a QR code or manual entry.
  • This tool aims to add an extra layer of security, ensuring that investors can verify the legitimacy of any entity before making financial transactions.

Conclusion and Future Prospects:

• The introduction of the new UPI mechanism and the 'SEBI Check' tool signifies SEBI's commitment to safeguarding investor interests and enhancing the integrity of the securities market. By October 1, 2025, these developments promise to create a more secure environment for financial transactions in India.

Important Points Summary:

• SEBI introduces a structured UPI mechanism set for October 1, 2025.
• Unique UPI handles will feature a suffix to identify intermediaries (e.g., .brk, .mf).
• Investors will see a visual cue to signify legitimate intermediaries during transactions.
• All intermediaries must obtain the new UPI IDs and inform investors.
• Existing UPI IDs will be phased out after the implementation deadline.
• 'SEBI Check' tool will help verify UPI IDs and bank details to prevent fraud.
• The initiative aims to enhance investor protection and trust in the securities market.

The National Conference on Agri Stack: Turning Data into Delivery was organized by the Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers' Welfare (MoA&FW) on October 11, 2023, in New Delhi. The event marked an opportunity for key stakeholders, including officials from both Central and State governments, to discuss the implementation status, challenges, and future directions of Agri Stack as part of the Digital Agriculture Mission (DAM).

Key Highlights:

• Government Commitment: Shri Devesh Chaturvedi, Secretary of the Department of Agriculture & Farmers’ Welfare, emphasized harnessing technology for transparent and farmer-centered governance, with a specific call for states to integrate their Farmer Registries with Records of Rights (RoR).

• Keynote Insights: The Secretary of the Department of Land Resources highlighted the importance of digital land records and Aadhaar seeding for accurate farmer identification, amidst concerns related to declining rural land values and incomes.

• Overview of Agri Stack: Shri Pramod Kumar Meherda, Additional Secretary (Digital), provided insights into Agri Stack, focusing on integrating the Farmer ID with flagship government schemes like PM-KISAN, PMFBY, and KCC. Stress was laid on georeferencing, data quality, and compliance with the Unified Farmer Service Interface (UFSI).

• Service Innovations: The conference introduced upcoming digital services such as farmer authorization systems and Digitally Verifiable Certificates (DVCs). These innovations aim to empower farmers by providing a secure method for sharing crop and land information.

• Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs): MoUs were signed with Maharashtra, Kerala, Bihar, and Odisha, enabling digital access to credit services for small and marginal farmers through a Farmer Registry-linked authentication system. This effort aims to reduce paperwork and facilitate better service delivery.

• Special Central Assistance (SCA): A total allocation of ₹6,000 crore was announced—₹4,000 crore for Farmer Registry initiatives and ₹2,000 crore for Digital Crop Survey (DCS), distributed on a first-come-first-served basis.

• Technical Sessions: Discussions were focused on enhancing state-level digital infrastructure, addressing gaps in data quality, and ensuring compliance with DCS standards. Challenges such as outdated tribal land records and inaccuracies in crop surveys were identified, with suggestions to use remote sensing and AI/ML tools for improvements.

• State Presentations:

  • Maharashtra showcased its progress in farmer enrollment and sought central support for a Data Provisioning Engine (DPE) and AI-driven advisories.
  • Uttar Pradesh presented its integration of Agri Stack with Minimum Support Price (MSP) e-procurement and discussed field challenges.
  • Karnataka featured multi-layered innovations and utilized Agri Stack in disaster relief operations.

• Digitally Verifiable Credential (DVC): A new system allowing farmers to generate authenticated credentials linked to specific land parcels and crops was introduced, integrated with DigiLocker for easy access and management.

• Grievance Redressal Initiative: A unified grievance redressal portal was launched with features like OTP-based login and multilingual support to facilitate land-related disputes.

• AI-Powered Solutions: An AI chatbot developed using Google Gemini was presented, capable of responding to agricultural queries. Other pilot projects utilizing AI were also discussed.

• Conclusion: The conference ended with an open dialogue for feedback from states to enhance collaboration and reaffirmed the government's commitment to supporting states in achieving inclusive and data-driven agricultural development, emphasizing peer learning.

Important Points to Note:

• Date and Venue: October 11, 2023, at Sushma Swaraj Bhawan, New Delhi.
• Total fund allocation announced: ₹6,000 crore.
• Key focuses: Integration of digital systems, farmer identification, service delivery enhancements.
• Innovations: Introduction of DVCs, AI tools, grievance redressal portal, and farmer authorization systems.
• Participating States: Maharashtra, Kerala, Bihar, and Odisha.
• Emphasis on technological tools for agricultural efficiency improvement.

This conference represents a significant step towards digitalizing the agricultural sector in India, fostering transparency, and enhancing farmer welfare through technology.

The news article discusses the World Bank's economic forecasts for India and global growth, highlighting key trends, policy changes, and challenges ahead.

Summary

• Growth Projections for India:

  • The World Bank maintains its GDP growth forecast for India at 6.3% for the fiscal year 2025-26, indicating that India will be the fastest-growing large economy globally during this period.
  • The growth forecast has been adjusted downward by 20 basis points for FY27 to 6.5% and is projected to reach 6.7% in FY28.
  • India's anticipated growth is supported by robust services activity which could enhance export performance.

• Global Economic Context:

  • The World Bank has reduced growth forecasts for nearly 70% of economies due to increasing trade tensions and policy uncertainties, predicting a global growth of 2.3% for 2025, the slowest outside outright recessions since 2008.
  • Global growth for 2026 is expected to marginally improve to 2.4% but will still represent a decline from earlier predictions (2.7% in January 2025).
  • The first half of the 2020s is on track to have the slowest average global growth since the 1960s.

• Trade Relations and Tensions:

  • The article references reciprocal tariffs enforced by the Trump administration in April 2025, highlighting ongoing trade tensions as significant factors impacting global economic health.
  • U.S.-China discussions in London are noted, especially in light of imposed export controls, reflecting on the escalation of trade conflicts.

• Prospect of Economic Recovery:

  • The World Bank suggests that if major economies can resolve trade disputes, a more rapid recovery in global growth could occur. They estimate that resolving current tariffs could enhance global growth by approximately 0.2 percentage points in 2025 and 2026.

• Domestic Economic Indicators:

  • The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has adjusted its policy repo rate, implementing a 50 basis points cut to 5.50%, building on a 100 basis points reduction for the year aimed at stimulating domestic consumption and investment.
  • Inflation projections by RBI are benign, with anticipated rates around 3.7% in FY26, reflecting a conducive environment for policy easing.

• Challenges and Economic Slowdown:

  • The forecast for India also coincides with a slowdown in GDP growth, which fell to 6.5% in FY25, primarily due to a decrease in industrial production despite steady service activity and agricultural recovery.
  • The Indian government aims for fiscal consolidation, with an anticipated public debt-to-GDP ratio of 56.1% in FY26 and a plan to reduce this to the range of 49-51% by FY31.

Key Points

• India’s GDP growth forecast retained at 6.3% for 2025-26; fastest growth rate forecast among large economies.
• Global growth downgraded to 2.3% for 2025 due to trade tensions, slowest pace since 2008.
• Trade disputes affecting global tariffs could lead to improved global growth projections if resolved.
• RBI's interest rate cut reflects efforts to stimulate consumption and investment.
• India's GDP growth slowed to 6.5% in FY25; government aims for a public debt-to-GDP target reduction by FY31.
• Inflation expected to remain manageable at 3.7% in FY26, allowing room for further policy support.

The inauguration of the Udhampur-Srinagar-Baramulla Rail Link (USBRL) marks a significant milestone in Indian railway infrastructure, establishing a direct rail connection between Kashmir and the rest of India for the first time. This 272-kilometre project was initiated 28 years ago and successfully navigates the challenging Himalayan terrain, overcoming engineering hurdles.

Key Features of the USBRL Project:

• Chenab Rail Bridge: Recognized as the world’s highest railway arch bridge, it stands 359 metres above the riverbed, surpassing the height of the Eiffel Tower by 35 metres. It spans 1,315 metres, engineered to withstand wind speeds of up to 260 km/h and designed for a lifespan of 120 years.
• Anji Khad Bridge: India’s first cable-stayed railway bridge, it rises 331 metres above the riverbed and stretches 725 metres, supported by 96 high-tensile cables, with 8,200 metric tonnes of steel used in its construction.
• The entire USBRL project incurred a total expenditure of ₹43,780 crore and involved extensive engineering feats including the drilling of 36 tunnels over 119 kilometres and the construction of 943 bridges.

Economic and Social Impact:

• The completion of the rail link marks the end of Kashmir’s geographical isolation, facilitating better connectivity and economic integration with the national rail network.
• A new train service, the Vande Bharat Express, was inaugurated to operate between Srinagar and Katra, significantly reducing travel time between the two locations to three hours. Additionally, a direct train service from New Delhi to Srinagar is set to commence, cutting the travel time from over 24 hours to just 13 hours.
• Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who inaugurated the rail link, stated that it symbolizes a new era of empowerment for Jammu and Kashmir, indicating its potential to transform the local economy and society.

Contextual Analysis:

• The rail link’s inauguration comes shortly after the Pahalgam terror attack in April 2025, which had strained India-Pakistan relations and marked a spike in military engagements, including “Operation Sindoor,” targeting terrorism infrastructure across the border.
• The incompletion of the rail link could have left Kashmir vulnerable to external conflicts; its operation is expected to enhance security and societal resilience by promoting inter-community interaction.

Date of Publication:

• This information was published on June 12, 2025.

Summary of Important Information:

• Project Title: Udhampur-Srinagar-Baramulla Rail Link (USBRL)
• Length: 272 km
• Investment: ₹43,780 crore
• Significant Structures:
  • Chenab Rail Bridge (359 m high)
  • Anji Khad Bridge (331 m high)
• Travel Benefits: Journey time between Katra and Srinagar reduced to 3 hours; New Delhi to Srinagar in 13 hours.
• Initial Context: Launched amidst recent tensions between India and Pakistan, following local terrorist activities.
• Government Commentary: PM Modi describes the rail link as a symbol of empowerment for J&K.

The inauguration of the USBRL represents a transformative infrastructure development with far-reaching implications for connectivity, economic progress, and national integration in Jammu and Kashmir.

In May 2025, India's retail inflation rate fell below 3% for the first time since April 2019, primarily influenced by food price fluctuations. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which serves as the benchmark for measuring inflation, recorded an already low rate of 3.16% in April 2025, with expectations that May 2025 inflation could drop to around 2.7%. Notably, while there was a rise in prices for certain vegetables, including potatoes (3%) and tomatoes (10%), the overall prices for cereals and pulses decreased, contributing to a decline in the prices of essential commodities.

Key Developments:

• CPI Inflation: Expected at approximately 2.7% for May 2025, down from 3.16% in April 2025.
• Historical Context: The last instance of CPI inflation dipping below 3% was in April 2019 (2.99%).
• Price Trends: Increase in specific vegetable prices contrasted with decreased prices for cereals and pulses leading to the overall decline in essential commodity prices.
• Essential Commodities Index: Bank of Baroda's Essential Commodities Index fell by 0.6% year-on-year in May 2025, marking the first decline since January 2019.
• Core Inflation: Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, is projected to rise to about 4.2%. This category’s increase is attributed to underlying demand pressures, shifting from a lower rate of 3.1% in mid-2024.
• Expert Analysis: Economists from Nomura have attributed the gradual increase in core inflation to lower global commodity prices, reliance on Chinese imports, weak domestic growth, and muted household inflation expectations.

Economic Outlook:

• The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) revised its inflation forecast for the fiscal year downwards by 30 basis points to 3.7%. Nonetheless, the pace of declining food prices is slowing. Notably, the latest increases in tomato and potato prices may indicate a need for caution in monitoring these trends moving forward.
• The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has responded to the benign inflation data by cutting interest rates aggressively in 2025. The repo rate was reduced to 5.50% following a cut of 100 basis points to support economic growth initiatives.
• CPI inflation is expected to average 2.9% in the April-June 2025 quarter, with a forecasted increase to about 4.4% by the end of the fiscal year.
• Despite the anticipated low inflation rates, the MPC adjusted its policy stance from ‘accommodative’ to ‘neutral’ to manage limited space for further monetary support.

Major Insights:

• Food Prices Influence: CPI's fluctuation largely influenced by essential food item pricing.
• Trend Monitoring: Careful observation of the “TOP” (tomato, onion, potato) prices is crucial due to rising trends in these areas.
• Cautious Economic Approach: Although there is an optimistic outlook on keeping inflation low, the economic policies reflect a cautious approach amid changing food supply dynamics.

The data underscores a complex economic landscape where fluctuating food prices and prevailing core inflation pressures prompt both optimism and caution in economic forecasting and policy adjustments by the RBI.