In recent years, there has been a significant decline in the amount of money that Indian families are remitting abroad for the education of their children, primarily due to tightening policies regarding international students in developed nations. According to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), remittances under the Liberalised Remittance Scheme (LRS) for foreign studies recorded $1.16 billion in the first half of 2025, marking a 22% decrease from the previous year and the lowest amount since 2018. In June specifically, the remittances dropped to just $139 million, the lowest figure since April 2020.
Key Facts:
Outward Remittances:
- 2025 data shows $1.16 billion remitted under the LRS from January to June, the lowest since 2018.
- Average first-half contribution to total annual remittances is about 45% based on the past five years.
Liberalised Remittance Scheme:
- The LRS allows Indian residents to remit up to $250,000 per financial year for various purposes, including education, medical treatment, and investments.
International Education Barriers:
- Developed nations such as the US, Canada, the UK, and Australia have implemented stricter criteria for international students:
- Canada increased the minimum proof of living expenses to 22,895 Canadian dollars starting September 1.
- Australia raised the minimum IELTS score requirements for certain international student categories.
- The US proposed capping the duration students can stay in the country to four years, necessitating an extension application thereafter.
- Developed nations such as the US, Canada, the UK, and Australia have implemented stricter criteria for international students:
Economic and Sectoral Implications:
Shift in Study Destinations:
- There is a noticeable shift from traditional locations like the US to countries like Germany and increased interest in domestic educational institutions.
- This change is also leading to decreased growth in education loans from banks in India. As of June 27, education loans from banks grew by 14% year-on-year, down from 20% the year prior.
Impact on Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs):
- Crisil predicts that the growth in education loans for non-banking sector entities will reduce significantly to 25% in the current fiscal year.
- The share of US-focused education loans within NBFCs has decreased to 50%, down by 300 basis points compared to the previous fiscal year, and is expected to decline further.
Conclusion:
The restrictive international education policies and economic factors are contributing to a decline in Indian remittances for studying abroad, reflecting broader trends in educational financing and a shift towards domestic education systems. This scenario has implications for banks and financial institutions, as well as for Indian students considering their educational options internationally.
Important Points:
- Total remittances for foreign studies in the first half of 2025: $1.16 billion.
- Decrease of 22% compared to the previous year.
- LRS allows remittances of up to $250,000 per year.
- June 2025 remittances: merely $139 million.
- Stricter criteria for international students by the US, Canada, Australia, and the UK.
- Education loan growth from banks down to 14% from 20% year-on-year.
- Growth in education loans from NBFCs expected to drop to 25%.
- Shift of study preference towards countries like Germany and domestic institutions.

In recent years, there has been a significant decline in the amount of money that Indian families are remitting abroad for the education of their children, primarily due to tightening policies regarding international students in developed nations. According to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), remittances under the Liberalised Remittance Scheme (LRS) for foreign studies recorded $1.16 billion in the first half of 2025, marking a 22% decrease from the previous year and the lowest amount since 2018. In June specifically, the remittances dropped to just $139 million, the lowest figure since April 2020.
Key Facts:
Outward Remittances:
- 2025 data shows $1.16 billion remitted under the LRS from January to June, the lowest since 2018.
- Average first-half contribution to total annual remittances is about 45% based on the past five years.
Liberalised Remittance Scheme:
- The LRS allows Indian residents to remit up to $250,000 per financial year for various purposes, including education, medical treatment, and investments.
International Education Barriers:
- Developed nations such as the US, Canada, the UK, and Australia have implemented stricter criteria for international students:
- Canada increased the minimum proof of living expenses to 22,895 Canadian dollars starting September 1.
- Australia raised the minimum IELTS score requirements for certain international student categories.
- The US proposed capping the duration students can stay in the country to four years, necessitating an extension application thereafter.
- Developed nations such as the US, Canada, the UK, and Australia have implemented stricter criteria for international students:
Economic and Sectoral Implications:
Shift in Study Destinations:
- There is a noticeable shift from traditional locations like the US to countries like Germany and increased interest in domestic educational institutions.
- This change is also leading to decreased growth in education loans from banks in India. As of June 27, education loans from banks grew by 14% year-on-year, down from 20% the year prior.
Impact on Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs):
- Crisil predicts that the growth in education loans for non-banking sector entities will reduce significantly to 25% in the current fiscal year.
- The share of US-focused education loans within NBFCs has decreased to 50%, down by 300 basis points compared to the previous fiscal year, and is expected to decline further.
Conclusion:
The restrictive international education policies and economic factors are contributing to a decline in Indian remittances for studying abroad, reflecting broader trends in educational financing and a shift towards domestic education systems. This scenario has implications for banks and financial institutions, as well as for Indian students considering their educational options internationally.
Important Points:
- Total remittances for foreign studies in the first half of 2025: $1.16 billion.
- Decrease of 22% compared to the previous year.
- LRS allows remittances of up to $250,000 per year.
- June 2025 remittances: merely $139 million.
- Stricter criteria for international students by the US, Canada, Australia, and the UK.
- Education loan growth from banks down to 14% from 20% year-on-year.
- Growth in education loans from NBFCs expected to drop to 25%.
- Shift of study preference towards countries like Germany and domestic institutions.

Karnataka Faces Teacher Shortage Crisis
The article discusses the significant shortage of teaching faculty in Karnataka's government-run educational institutions, ranging from primary schools to professional colleges, which has severely hampered the quality of education in the state. Various factors, including recent judicial rulings and administrative challenges, have contributed to this crisis, leading to major implications for student learning and institutional reputation.
Key Points:
Deputation of Faculty: A chemistry lecturer has been assigned to two colleges to cover shortages, affecting students' continuity in learning and their exam performance.
Vacancy Statistics: Karnataka faces a staggering 85,495 vacant teaching posts in government educational institutions, with only 1,99,608 out of sanctioned 2,85,103 positions filled. This includes:
- 46,776 government schools catering to around 52 lakh students, where 61,525 teacher posts remain vacant despite 2,32,937 sanctioned positions.
- 1,229 pre-university colleges with 12,923 lecturer positions, where only 8,150 posts are filled.
- Significant vacancies also exist in 32 public universities with only 2,171 out of 5,653 sanctioned posts filled.
Court Rulings: The National Medical Commission (NMC) denied the opening of two new medical colleges in Bangalore citing faculty shortages. A court decision in September 2024 mandated that guest faculty must hold minimum qualifications per UGC standards, resulting in over 5,500 guest lecturers losing their posts.
Government Responses:
- The Minister for School Education and Literacy has indicated that 14,499 graduate teachers were recruited recently, with plans to fill an additional 10,267 posts as announced in the current budget.
- The Minister for Higher and Technical Education stated they are addressing the lack of faculty in government colleges, aiming to create new posts in line with emerging educational demands like AI, robotics, etc.
Quality of Education Concerns: The absence of qualified faculty is linked to declining educational outcomes. For instance, SSLC and II PU results in state curriculum schools have not exceeded 75% success rates, contrasting sharply with over 80% in Central curriculum schools.
NAAC Assessments: The National Assessment and Accreditation Council (NAAC) highlights the scarcity of teaching staff, poor quality of teaching, and lack of infrastructure leading to low national rankings for Karnataka institutions.
Declining Enrollment: Reduced student enrollment in Karnataka's public universities, attributed to faculty shortages, is pushing students toward private institutions. Recent reports indicate that certain departments at the University of Mysore failed to recruit students due to low application numbers.
Historical Context: There has been a long-standing neglect of public universities, as voiced by education stakeholders, who call for a focus on strengthening existing institutions rather than establishing new ones without adequate staffing.
Future Projections: The NAAC recommends filling approximately 20,000 vacancies in higher education within five years, emphasizing the detrimental effects of relying on guest lecturers.
Ministerial Action: The government has initiated actions to resolve the faculty shortages through a sub-committee led by the Deputy Chief Minister, along with plans to file a report addressing the urgent need for filling vacancies in educational institutions.
Rights in Education: Calls for legislation to ensure the "Right to University Education" highlight the need for structural reforms to improve educational standards and accessibility, particularly for marginalized communities.
This situation within Karnataka's educational framework signifies a critical challenge to maintaining high educational standards, urging immediate attention from both state authorities and educational policymakers.
Economic and Social Development

Decline in India's Birth Rates 2023
The recent Sample Registration Survey (SRS) Statistical Report for 2023 provides critical demographic insights into India's population dynamics. Here are the main findings and statistics that emerged from the report:
Summary of Findings:
Crude Birth Rate (CBR):
- In 2023, India's CBR declined by 0.7 points, from 19.1 in 2022 to 18.4.
- Bihar recorded the highest CBR at 25.8, while Tamil Nadu reported the lowest at 12.
Total Fertility Rate (TFR):
- The TFR fell to 1.9 in 2023 after remaining constant at 2.0 in 2021 and 2022.
- Replacement level TFR, which is 2.1 (the level needed for a population to replace itself), was not met by 18 States and Union Territories (UTs).
- Bihar had the highest TFR among larger states at 2.8, whereas Delhi reported the lowest at 1.2.
Crude Death Rate (CDR):
- The CDR saw a decline to 6.4 in 2023, down by 0.4 points from the previous year.
Infant Mortality Rate (IMR):
- The IMR decreased from the previous year by 1 point, now standing at 25, which indicates a decline of 7 points over the last five years. This means one in every 40 infants dies within the first year of life.
Sex Ratio at Birth (SRB):
- The SRB is reported at 917 girls per 1,000 boys in 2023.
- Chhattisgarh and Kerala reported the highest SRB at 974 and 971, respectively, while Uttarakhand had the lowest at 868.
- Bihar’s SRB remains low at 897, though it has improved slightly from previous years.
Elderly Population:
- The elderly demographic (aged over 60 years) now comprises 9.7% of the population, a 0.7 percentage point increase from the previous year.
- Kerala leads with the highest proportion of elderly at 15%, while states like Assam, Delhi, and Jharkhand report lower proportions, around 7.6% to 7.7%.
Data Release and Delays:
- The Office of the Registrar General of India published the SRS 2023 data, alongside previous year reports that had been delayed for several years. The Civil Registration System (CRS) and Medical Certification of Cause of Death (MCCD) reports for 2022 have been released, yet the CRS and MCCD datasets for 2023 are still pending.
Regional Insights:
States With Higher TFR:
- Northern states predominantly exhibit TFRs above the replacement level, including Bihar (2.8), Uttar Pradesh (2.6), Madhya Pradesh (2.4), Rajasthan (2.3), and Chhattisgarh (2.2).
States With Lower TFR:
- Major states reporting TFRs below 1.5 include Delhi (1.2), West Bengal (1.3), Tamil Nadu (1.3), and others, indicating significant demographic challenges.
Public Health Implications:
The report underscores the importance of maternal health and its correlation with infant mortality rates. Better health of pregnant women is essential for lowering IMR.
Key Statistical Points:
- CBR: 18.4 (2023), down from 19.1 (2022)
- TFR: 1.9 (2023), down from 2.0 (2021 and 2022).
- CDR: 6.4 (2023), down from 6.8 (2022)
- IMR: 25 (2023), a decline of 7 points over five years.
- SRB: 917 girls/1,000 boys (2023).
- Elderly (60+): 9.7% of the population.
These findings indicate noteworthy trends in India's demographic structure, highlighting both improvements and continuing challenges in population health and gender balance.
Economic and Social Development

GST Council Reforms Transform Indian Taxation
The 56th meeting of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) Council, convened on September 3, 2025, marked a significant turning point in India's taxation system. The reforms initiated during this meeting aim to establish a simpler, fairer, and growth-oriented tax framework aligned with the vision of 'Viksit Bharat 2047.'
Key Highlights:
Simplification of GST Rates:
- Transition from four GST slabs (5%, 12%, 18%, and 28%) to a dual-rate system:
- Standard Rate: 18%
- Merit Rate: 5%
- De-merit Rate: 40% for specific goods.
- This reform is anticipated to reduce compliance burdens, enhance predictability for businesses, and align with global practices.
- Transition from four GST slabs (5%, 12%, 18%, and 28%) to a dual-rate system:
Impact on Daily Lives:
- Common consumer items like soap, shampoo, toothpaste, and kitchenware now fall under the 5% GST bracket.
- Essential items such as Ultra-High Temperature (UHT) milk, paneer, chapati, and paratha are exempt from GST.
- Notable rate cuts on packaged foods, noodles, chocolates, and beverages aim to stimulate consumption and provide relief to families across various income levels.
Insurance Sector Reform:
- Exemption of GST on life and health insurance products, enhancing affordability, especially for senior citizens and low-income families. This measure is expected to raise insurance penetration and strengthen social security.
Boost to Healthcare:
- Reductions and exemptions on essential medicines, medical devices, and treatments for serious health conditions aim to improve access to healthcare and reduce financial burdens on households.
Support for Farmers:
- Significant GST reductions for tractors, farm machinery (5% GST), and fertilizers (from 18% to 5%) are projected to lower cultivation costs and enhance farm productivity.
Aid to Labor-Intensive Sectors:
- Reduced GST rates for handicrafts, marble, granite, and leather goods are expected to stimulate demand and preserve employment in these traditional industries.
Addressing Inverted Duty Structures:
- Correction of duty structures, notably in textiles, where GST on man-made fibre and yarn has been reduced to 5%. This aims to improve competitiveness, exports, and domestic value addition in the textile sector.
Real Estate Sector Support:
- The shift of cement GST from 28% to 18% is anticipated to benefit the housing and infrastructure sectors significantly.
Institutional Advances:
- The Goods and Services Tax Appellate Tribunal (GSTAT) is set to become operational by the end of the year, which is expected to expedite dispute resolution and enhance taxpayer trust.
Implementation and Timeline:
- Reforms will be phased in starting September 22, 2025, which is designed to maintain revenue stability while allowing immediate benefits to industries and consumers.
Conclusions:
- These reforms are described as a foundational step towards creating a more equitable tax regime that benefits various stakeholders, including citizens, farmers, businesses, and entrepreneurs.
- The Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) commends the government for adopting many of its recommendations which include simplified tax structures and reductions in rates.
- The comprehensive overhaul encapsulates a vision for sustained growth and socio-economic development within the larger framework of the Indian economy as it strives toward its 2047 goals.
Important Points:
- Date of Meeting: September 3, 2025
- New GST Structure: Two rates (18% and 5%) plus a 40% de-merit rate.
- Impact on Essentials: Common items and essentials now more affordable.
- Health Insurance: Exempt from GST, aiding affordability.
- Support for Agriculture: Key reductions aiding farmers.
- GSTAT Operational: To facilitate quicker dispute resolution.
- Phase Implementation: Reforms to start from September 22, 2025.
Economic and Social Development

GST Council Revamps Tax Structure
The 56th meeting of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) Council, chaired by Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, resulted in significant changes to the GST framework scheduled to take effect from September 22, 2025. The reform aims to streamline the tax structure into a two-rate system, catering to the broader needs of consumers while also addressing the economic realities of various sectors.
Key Points of the GST Reform:
- Introduction of a Two-Rate System: The new GST structure will primarily consist of two rates, 5% and 18%, along with a special rate of 40% on "sin" goods.
- Implementation Date: Most changes will be effective starting September 22, 2025. Specific timelines for tobacco-related products will be determined later.
- Fiscal Impact: The government anticipates a net fiscal impact of ₹48,000 crore based on consumption patterns for FY 2023-24, emphasizing that real effects will be determined as current consumption data is analyzed.
Tax Rate Changes:
- Common Goods: Essential items such as hair care products, household items, and agricultural goods will see a reduction in GST rates:
- Hair oil, soap, shampoo, and various other household products will be taxed at 5%, down from either 18% or 12%.
- Namkeen, sauces, and certain food items will also fall into the 5% category.
- Cement: The GST rate on cement will decrease from 28% to 18%.
- Grocery Items: Items like ultra-high temperature milk and various breads will see a tax reduction from 5% to 0%.
- Electronics and Appliances: Products such as air-conditioners and small cars will have their GST cut from 28% to 18%, while some lifesaving drugs will move from 12% to 0%.
- Textile Sector: A rectification of the inverted duty structure will lower GST on manmade fibers to 5% from 18% and manmade yarn from 12% to 5%.
Sin and Super-Luxury Goods:
- 40% Special Rate: This rate will apply to specific goods deemed as sin or luxury items:
- Tobacco products will initially maintain a 28% rate plus a compensation cess, aiming for a future transition to the 40% rate post-loan discharge by the Centre.
- Goods like pan masala, sales of mid-size or large cars, and luxury helicopters will fall under this category.
Health and Insurance:
- Health Sector: Individual life and health insurance policies will shift from an 18% GST rate to 0%.
Government’s Stance:
- The reforms are designed with the "common man" in mind, asserting enhanced support for labor-intensive sectors and significant benefits for farming and health-related industries. Sitharaman underscored the rigorous evaluation of tax rates to ensure the changes are beneficial to the middle class and consumers.
Conclusions:
These GST reforms signal a pivotal shift in India's tax landscape, aiming for enhanced compliance and potential revenue growth driven by consumption-based buoyancy. The government has made clear its commitment to supporting sectors crucial for economic growth while addressing the tax burden on everyday consumers. With the effective date set, stakeholders are urged to prepare for these changes to optimize their operations in light of the new tax implications.
Important Sentences:
- The GST Council approved a new two-rate tax system aimed at benefiting the common man, effective September 22, 2025.
- The net fiscal implications of the reform are projected at ₹48,000 crore.
- Essential household items and several agricultural products will see tax reductions, with cement dropping to 18%.
- A special 40% rate will apply to certain sin goods like tobacco and luxury items.
- Health insurance policies will be taxed at 0%, showing the government's focused reforms in the health sector.
Polity and Governance

GST Council Meeting Implements Major Reforms
Summary of the 56th GST Council Meeting Held on September 20, 2025
The 56th Goods and Services Tax (GST) Council meeting convened on September 20, 2025, under the chairmanship of Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, lasting over 10 hours. The council met to discuss significant reforms to the GST framework, aimed at simplifying the tax structure and easing the financial burden on consumers.
Key Highlights:
Structure of GST Reform:
- Introduction of a two-slab GST structure: 5% and 18%, alongside a demerit rate of 40% for luxury and sin goods.
- The implementation date for the new rates, except for tobacco products, is set for September 22, 2025.
Objectives:
- Lowering tax burdens for the common populace, notably benefiting farmers, MSMEs, and middle-class consumers.
- Enhancements in the ease of business operations through automated refunds and registration processes.
- Addressing concerns of blocked working capital for businesses.
Rate Cuts on Common Goods:
- Substantial rate reductions on essential items:
- Items like fruit juices, butter, and medical supplies see a reduction from 12% to 5%.
- Nil GST for ultra-high temperature milk, paneer, and basic education supplies.
- Other reductions include hair oils, soap, bicycles, and crockery from 12-18% to 5%.
- Large household appliances such as air conditioners and televisions reduced from 28% to 18%.
- Lower taxes on small cars (up to 1200 cc petrol and 1500 cc diesel) and motorcycles (below 350 cc) at 18%.
- Substantial rate reductions on essential items:
Special Exemptions:
- Life insurance policies, health insurance (including senior citizen plans), and gym/salon services will now be taxed at a lower rate of 5%.
Structural Improvements:
- The removal of multiple tax slabs (previously ranging from 5% to 28%) aims for simplified compliance and reduced litigation.
- Correction of inverted duty structure, particularly in the textile and fertilizer sectors.
Government Assurance:
- Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman emphasized that the reforms focus on benefiting ordinary citizens and fostering a conducive business environment. She stated they would lead to predictability and stability in GST operations.
Fiscal Implications and Concerns:
- Despite concerns raised by states about potential revenue losses estimated between ₹80,000 crore to ₹1.5 lakh crore, the Council reached a consensus without voting.
- Revenue Secretary Arvind Shrivastava projected a net revenue impact of about ₹48,000 crore based on consumption data for 2023-24.
Industry Response:
- The Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) welcomed the decisions as transformative and position to enhance compliance while advocating the passing of benefits to consumers.
Conclusion:
The 56th GST Council meeting positioned itself as a pivotal moment in India's indirect taxation regime, streamlining the GST framework, and aiming to alleviate the financial pressures on everyday consumers while enhancing the ease of doing business. The reforms are seen as a step toward fostering industrial growth and benefiting various sectors significantly.
Important Points:
- Introduction of a two-slab GST structure: 5% and 18%.
- Rate reductions on essential goods effective September 22, 2025.
- Focus on reducing burdens for common people, farmers, and MSMEs.
- Tax relief for life and health insurance policies.
- Concerns of states regarding revenue losses but consensus achieved without voting.
- Anticipated net revenue impact of ₹48,000 crore.
- Industry welcomed the reforms as a considerable step forward for compliance and predictability.
Economic and Social Development

Cancer Statistics and Trends in India
Summary of Recent Cancer Data Analysis in India
An analysis of data from 43 cancer registries across India highlights significant trends and statistics regarding cancer incidence and mortality, underscoring the need for targeted healthcare interventions.
Key Findings:
- Lifetime Cancer Risk: The lifetime risk of developing cancer in India is 11%. In 2024, approximately 1.56 million new cancer cases and 874,000 cancer deaths are projected.
- Population Coverage: Current cancer registries cover 10% to 18% of the population, spanning 23 states and Union Territories.
- Gender Disparity:
- Women represent a higher proportion of cancer cases (51.1%) but account for a lower percentage of cancer-related deaths (45%).
- The disparity is attributed to the types of prevalent cancers; breast and cervical cancers, which are more common in women, are easier to detect and have more favorable treatment outcomes compared to commonly occurring cancers in men, such as lung and gastric cancers.
Cancer Trends:
- Oral Cancer: There has been a notable rise in oral cancer cases, which has surpassed lung cancer as the most prevalent form of cancer among men. This trend persists despite a decline in tobacco use from 34.6% to 28.6% between 2009-10 and 2016-17.
- Risk Factors: Besides tobacco, alcohol consumption is identified as increasing the risk for multiple cancers, including oral and gastrointestinal cancers. The dual use of tobacco and alcohol exacerbates this risk.
Regional Variations:
- The Northeast region reports the highest cancer incidence and is particularly affected by cervical and oral cancers. Contributing factors include:
- Higher tobacco use rates than the national average.
- Dietary habits unique to the region, such as fermented foods.
- Prevalence of carcinogenic infections like Helicobacter Pylori and Human Papillomavirus (HPV).
Incidence Statistics:
- The state of Mizoram shows the highest lifetime cancer risk, with rates at 21.1% for men and 18.9% for women.
- The analysis indicates significant regional variations in the incidence of specific cancers such as breast, cervical, lung, and prostate cancers.
Implications for Policy:
- The data underscores the importance of screening and awareness initiatives, especially for cancers like breast and cervical, which are more treatable when detected early.
- Suggested policy measures include:
- Comprehensive cancer care planning and management.
- Strengthening healthcare infrastructure, particularly in high-incidence regions like the Northeast.
- Implementing community-based programs to promote positive health behaviors, such as tobacco cessation.
Public Health Recommendations:
- The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that 30% to 50% of cancers can be prevented through lifestyle modifications and evidence-based strategies.
- Early detection and appropriate treatment are vital for improving cancer cure rates and overall health outcomes.
Conclusion:
This comprehensive analysis of cancer data provides crucial insights that can guide governmental strategies in combating the cancer burden in India. It emphasizes the need for ongoing public health campaigns, enhanced screening, and robust healthcare infrastructure to reduce both the incidence and mortality associated with cancer.
Important Points:
- Lifetime cancer risk in India: 11%; projected 1.56 million new cases in 2024.
- Higher cancer incidence in women (51.1%) but lower mortality (45%).
- Oral cancer prevalence has overtaken lung cancer among men.
- Cancer incidence highest in Northeast India, linked to specific dietary and lifestyle factors.
- Mizoram shows the highest lifetime risk of cancer (21.1% for men).
- WHO suggests 30-50% of cancers can be prevented with effective strategies.
- Urgent need for improved healthcare infrastructure and community health initiatives.
Economic and Social Development

India's GDP Growth Surprises Analysts
India's GDP growth rate for April-June reached 7.8%, surpassing expectations and an increase from 7.4% in January-March. This growth, however, requires a careful examination due to underlying factors and discrepancies in the data.
Key Highlights of the Article:
GDP Growth Overview:
- The reported growth of 7.8% is the highest in five quarters.
- The nominal GDP growth rate for the same period was significantly lower at 8.8%, marking a three-quarter low.
Inflation's Role:
- GDP is contingent on economic activity and price levels (inflation).
- The real GDP figure adjusts for inflation, while nominal GDP does not.
Current Prices and Deflation:
- The nominal GDP in current prices stood at Rs 86.05 lakh crore; the real GDP amounted to Rs 47.89 lakh crore.
- Both the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rates in India showed significant decreases, with WPI averaging under 0.3% and CPI at 2.7%.
Implications of Deflators:
- The GDP deflator was at a historic low of 0.9%, indicating that there’s a narrow gap between nominal and real GDP growth rates.
- Economists from ICICI Securities suggest that the real GDP growth rate might have been artificially inflated due to how nominal GDP is deflated, particularly in the services sector, which saw a high real growth rate of 9.3%.
Concerns with Measurement:
- Issues persist with how the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) applies deflators. The methodology of using single deflation (same deflator for input and output prices) raises questions of accuracy.
- For sectors like agriculture and mining, double deflation is implemented, but not for most others.
Sector-Specific Analysis:
- Without suitable adjustments, real growth in sectors like services may be exaggerated, with estimates suggesting the services sector's real growth could be around 7.8% if CPI’s actual inflation rate was utilized.
- The manufacturing sector’s growth estimate might also be overstated, with possible overestimations of about 150 basis points.
Future Outlook:
- Projections indicate continued low inflation, with WPI declining to -0.58% in July and CPI at an eight-year low of 1.55%.
- The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) expects CPI inflation to average 3.1% in 2025-26, lower than previous averages.
- Analysts anticipate that this low inflation may lead to persistent discrepancies between real GDP figures and actual economic activity.
Conclusion:
- Analysts are questioning the reliability of the growth figures due to the existing deflation methods and inflation metrics used.
- There's an ongoing need for clarity in economic metrics, as the accuracy of reported growth rates is crucial for policy-making and investment decisions.
Overall, while India's GDP growth appears robust at first glance, a comprehensive analysis reveals potential methodological concerns that could affect the perception of economic health.
Important Points:
- GDP growth rate: 7.8% (April-June), up from 7.4% (Jan-Mar).
- Nominal GDP: 8.8% growth, the lowest in three quarters.
- Real GDP: Rs 47.89 lakh crore; Nominal GDP: Rs 86.05 lakh crore.
- CPI inflation at a six-year low of 2.7%.
- WPI inflation: Less than 0.3%, marking significant decreases.
- Services sector growth: 9.3% (real), 11.3% (nominal).
- Criticism on MoSPI methodology for deflation.
- Anticipated continued low inflation in upcoming quarters.
Economic and Social Development

Public Sector Banks Dominate Home Loans
In the housing finance sector, public sector banks (PSBs) have demonstrated significant growth and dominance in the June quarter of FY26, effectively outperforming private sector lenders. This trend is attributed to lower interest rates, enhanced service offerings, and government initiatives aimed at improving affordability for homebuyers.
Key Highlights:
- Market Share Expansion: PSBs increased their share of home loan originations by value from 37.6% in Q1 FY25 to 46.2% in Q1 FY26. In terms of volume, their share rose from 36.5% to 41.9%.
- Private Sector Decline: Conversely, private sector banks endured a notable decline in market presence, with their value share dropping from 35.2% to 28.2% and volume share from 25.2% to 22.0%.
- Outstanding Home Loan Portfolio: As of June 2026, the total outstanding home loan portfolio grew to Rs 41.2 lakh crore, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.8%.
- Average Ticket Sizes: Despite a decrease, private banks maintained the highest average ticket size at Rs 41 lakh (down 3.3% from last year). PSBs followed with an average of Rs 35.3 lakh, an increase of 12.6%. Housing Finance Companies (HFCs) reported an average ticket size of Rs 24.6 lakh, showing an 11.8% rise.
- Loan Origination Growth: PSBs achieved a remarkable 36.1% growth in home loan originations by value year-on-year, while private banks saw a decline of 11.2%, and HFCs grew by 7.1%.
- Shift towards Higher Ticket Sizes: The average ticket size for home loans increased to Rs 32.0 lakh in Q1 FY26 from Rs 30.4 lakh in the same quarter of the previous year, indicating a shift towards larger loans.
- Emergence of Rs 75 Lakh-plus Loans: Loans exceeding Rs 75 lakh became the dominant category in terms of origination value (38% share), up from 33.6% the previous year. PSBs' share in this segment grew from 38% to 51%, whereas private banks' share fell from 44% to 33%.
- Affordable Housing Demand: The Rs 5–35 lakh loan range continues to dominate in volume terms, signifying ongoing demand for affordable housing, especially in tier 2 and 3 cities where PSBs have a stronger presence compared to private banks.
- Impact of RBI Policy: Following the Reserve Bank of India’s 100 basis point repo rate cut since February, banks have had varied responses to protect their margins, with some increasing home loan interest rates despite the cuts. This has not entirely benefitted the borrowers, as banks maintain tighter margins.
- PSB Strategy: PSBs have absorbed some margin pressures to sustain competitive rates, which has contributed to their gains in the home loan market.
Conclusion:
The aggressive push by PSBs into the housing finance space, coupled with their focus on both high-value and affordable loans, positions them favorably against private lenders, necessitating a strategic reassessment from the latter to maintain competitiveness in the evolving market landscape.
Important Facts:
- PSB Share Increase: Home loan originations (value) - from 37.6% (Q1 FY25) to 46.2% (Q1 FY26).
- Private Bank Decline: Value share - from 35.2% to 28.2%.
- Outstanding Portfolio: Rs 41.2 lakh crore (as of June 2026).
- Average Ticket Size: Rs 32.0 lakh (Q1 FY26).
- Loan Category Growth: Rs 75 lakh-plus loans - 38% share in Q1 FY26.
- Tier 2 and 3 City Demand: Strong traction in affordable housing despite overall pressure on margins.
This encapsulation provides a structured overview of the current state of the housing finance market in India, specifically highlighting the performance of public sector banks in relation to private competitors.
Economic and Social Development

Urban Loneliness and Social Fragmentation
The article addresses the escalating emotional and social loneliness prevalent in metropolitan urban environments in India, highlighting a stark contrast between modernization and human connection.
Key Summary Points:
Existential Pain in Urban Living: The author describes a sense of pain and anguish associated with living in a metropolitan city despite access to good educational, medical, and cultural facilities.
Separation in Urban Society: The increasingly stratified nature of society is emphasized, where the wealthy and upwardly mobile are segregated from the larger population, often embodied in the form of “gated communities.”
Gated Communities: These settings promote a culture of surveillance, fear of the "other," and limit informal social interactions. Residents and service workers are segregated physically and socially, detracting from community bonds.
Loneliness and Disconnection: A 2021 study indicates that over 40% of urban Indians feel lonely. The disassociated nature of living, where even basic greetings in shared spaces are rare, exacerbates this loneliness.
Pedestrian Rights and Urban Planning: Pedestrian experiences are often ignored in urban planning, leading to unsafe environments. In India, pedestrians represent a significant portion of traffic fatalities, accounting for nearly 20% of crash deaths, indicating a lack of protective infrastructure.
Urban Vehicle Congestion: Major cities like Delhi and Bengaluru are overwhelmed with private vehicle registrations, surpassing 2 million each, contributing to traffic congestion and disputes over parking spaces, further intensifying social conflict.
Technological Impact on Communication: The reliance on technology for communication is critiqued, suggesting that during commutes, individuals engage more with devices than with each other, embodying what sociologist Georg Simmel described as “heartless indifference.”
Shift in Human Interaction: The shift toward virtual interactions has led to a decline in meaningful face-to-face communication. The pervasive use of smartphones creates a barrier to personal connections, leading to emotional isolation.
Irony of Urban Efficiency: Despite becoming “efficient” and “productive” through advancements and technology, urban dwellers are paradoxically becoming more lonely, indifferent, and anxious.
Environmental Concerns: The article also touches on environmental issues, such as ongoing deforestation and ecosystem destruction due to urban expansion and vehicle overuse, which contribute to urban stressors including traffic jams and the climate emergency.
The overall theme underscores the detrimental impact that urbanization, socio-economic segregation, and technology have on the psychological well-being of individuals, calling for a reflection on the nature of contemporary urban life and its pitfalls.
Economic and Social Development

US-India Tariff Dispute and Trade Relations
Summary of U.S. Tariffs on Indian Exports and the India-U.S. Relationship
The recent decision by the United States to significantly increase tariffs on Indian exports, raising duties to 50% for a broad array of products, has sparked considerable concern in India. The economic implications of this decision are profound given the extensive trade relationship between the two countries.
Key Facts:
- Trade Impacts: In 2024, India exported goods valued at $87.3 billion to the U.S., making it India’s largest trading partner. Nearly $48–55 billion of this merchandise is now threatened by the new tariffs.
- Affected Sectors:
- Gems and Jewellery: Approximately $10 billion annually, with over a quarter of India's diamond and jewellery exports going to the U.S.
- Textiles and Apparel: About $8 billion in exports, with 70% of U.S.-bound textiles and garments caught under the new tariff regime.
- Agriculture: Exports potentially worth $6 billion are at risk, particularly in rice, spices, seafood, and niche agricultural products.
- Leather and Footwear: Valued at $3 billion, these traditional export sectors may face increased competition from other low-cost providers.
Recent Trends:
- Before the implementation of tariffs, there was a surge in exports particularly in the gems and jewellery sector, which rose by 16% in July 2025, while lab-grown diamonds saw a 27.6% increase, indicating an adaptive response from exporters.
Resilient Sectors:
Despite the setbacks caused by tariffs, many sectors of the India-U.S. trade relationship remain robust:
- Pharmaceuticals: India supplies 40% of the U.S. generic drug market, valued at $50 billion.
- IT and Services: Contributing $387.5 billion in FY 2024-25, with significant exports to the U.S.
- Energy and Clean Technology: Ongoing partnerships in LNG imports and renewable energy.
- Aerospace and Defence: Continued collaboration in technology transfer and joint military exercises.
- Space Exploration: Cooperation between NASA and ISRO is ongoing, expanding the partnership into the realm of space.
People-to-People Ties:
The human connections between India and the U.S. form an unquantifiable yet critical backbone to the relationship:
- Indian Diaspora: Approximately 4.8 million Indians in the U.S. occupy influential positions across various sectors.
- Education: More than 200,000 Indian students studying in U.S. universities bolster economic and cultural ties.
- Cultural Exchange: The Indian-American community actively participates in U.S. politics and cultural celebrations.
Strategic Collaborations:
The U.S.-India relationship transcends trade disputes, encompassing several collaborative endeavors:
- Defence and Security: Engaging in joint military exercises and intelligence sharing.
- Healthcare: Cooperation extends into R&D and clinical trials in pharmaceuticals.
- Climate Initiatives: Joint efforts in renewable energy and sustainable practices help mitigate climate change.
Future Directions:
India's response to the tariffs necessitates a deliberative approach, including:
- Expanding markets in Africa, Latin America, and the Indo-Pacific.
- Innovating supply chains to enhance domestic resilience.
- Continued diplomatic engagement to navigate trade challenges.
The relationship between the U.S. and India has weathered various storms, including historical suspicions, sanctions, and trade disputes. Ultimately, the trust between the nations, reinforced through personal and strategic connections, signifies that tariffs will not define their destiny.
Important Points:
- U.S. tariffs raised to 50% on Indian exports stir economic concern.
- $48–55 billion of Indian exports directly at risk.
- Major sectors affected: gems, textiles, agriculture, and leather.
- Other sectors like pharmaceuticals, IT, and space remain strong.
- 4.8 million Indian diaspora in the U.S. enhances bilateral ties.
- Future actions suggested include diversifying markets and enhancing supply chain resilience.
This analysis underscores the complexity of the U.S.-India relationship, revealing both challenges and opportunities in the face of shifting trade dynamics.
Economic and Social Development

Challenges in Digital Library Creation
The article discusses the complexities surrounding intellectual property (IP) laws, particularly in relation to copyright and the accessibility of digital literature. It highlights the challenges faced by tech companies, AI developers, and legal jurisdictions in executing universal access to literary works amidst stringent copyright regulations. Key cases and initiatives in the U.S. and India are outlined, focusing on their implications for the future of knowledge accessibility.
Key Points:
Copyright Term Extensions: Disney lobbied Congress to extend the copyright term from 28 years to 95 years, thereby keeping characters like Mickey Mouse out of the public domain.
Digital Library Aspirations: The ongoing quest for a universal digital library reflecting all literary works has been hindered by copyright laws, complicating the efforts of tech giants like Google and AI companies, including Anthropic and Meta.
Court Rulings:
- In the U.S. District Court case Bartz v Anthropic PBC, it was established that Anthropic created a digital library by using collections from shadow libraries like LibGen, whose operation under copyright remains contentious.
- In India, the Delhi High Court's ruling in Elsevier Ltd. v Alexandra Elbakyan involved ordering the blocking of Sci-Hub, citing copyright infringement.
Shadow Libraries: Libraries like LibGen and Sci-Hub showcase the public's struggle with accessing knowledge due to the restrictions placed by traditional copyright laws, serving as a response to the public-goods problem of knowledge accessibility.
Historical Context: The creation of the Library of Congress in the U.S. was a consequence of the 1790 Copyright Law, which mandated the legal deposit of published works. Similar systems have been adopted worldwide, yet there is a notable absence of digital copies for national libraries.
Fair Use Doctrine: The court ruled that while the transformative use of physical books into digital formats by Anthropic constituted fair use, downloading from shadow libraries was unlawful. This presents a conflict regarding rights and access.
Economic Implications: The existence of shadow libraries highlights a market failure to provide public access to knowledge, raising moral questions about states' responsibilities for ensuring digital library development.
Legal Deposit Systems: Countries could adapt their copyright laws to include provisions for digital deposits, enabling the establishment of comprehensive public libraries, as seen in Japan, which implemented electronic legal deposit in 2013.
Potential Reforms: To counteract the restricted access to knowledge, nations should strive for building national digital libraries, reforming copyright laws to facilitate the exchange of digital copies, and implementing efficient IP administration practices.
Conclusion: Enhancing knowledge access can significantly improve a nation's human capital and overall education, emphasizing the necessity for countries to contemplate creating their own comprehensive digital libraries.
The article encourages legislative changes to copyright frameworks, proposing that unrestricted access to knowledge is essential for public welfare and future advancements in human capital development while recognizing the contemporary challenges posed by shadow libraries and existing copyright impediments.
Economic and Social Development

Cancer Incidence Trends in India
Comprehensive Summary:
Recent analysis from 43 cancer registries in India has revealed significant data regarding cancer incidence and mortality trends in the country. The report anticipates that in 2024, India will witness around 15.6 lakh new cancer cases and approximately 8.74 lakh cancer-related deaths, reflecting a lifetime risk of developing cancer at 11%.
Key findings from the registries, which cover between 10% to 18% of the population across 23 states and Union Territories, include:
Cancer Incidence and Deaths:
- Women comprised a majority of cancer cases (51.1%) but had a lower proportion of deaths (45%). This discrepancy is linked to the types of cancers prevalent among women, such as breast and cervical cancers, which are generally more detectable and manageable.
- Conversely, common cancers in men, like lung and gastric cancers, present more treatment challenges, as noted by oncologists.
Emerging Cancer Trends:
- There has been a rise in oral cancer incidences, surpassing lung cancer among men. This increase is notable despite a decrease in tobacco use from 34.6% in 2009-10 to 28.6% in 2016-17, according to the Global Adult Tobacco Survey.
- The long latency of cancer after initial carcinogen exposure, alongside the impact of alcohol consumption, contributes to this rise. Alcohol is linked with increased risks for several cancers, notably oral and gastrointestinal cancers.
Regional Variations:
- The Southeast region of India shows the highest incidence rates, with Mizoram reporting a staggering lifetime risk of 21.1% for men and 18.9% for women.
- Contributing factors include high tobacco use, specific dietary habits, and prevalent infections functioning as carcinogens.
Health Policy Implications:
- The report calls for enhanced cancer care strategies, including improved screening and treatment in primary health centres and alignment with the central government's Ayushman Bharat programme.
- The Northeast’s cancer burden necessitates a multidisciplinary strategy, incorporating better healthcare infrastructure, community engagement, and education on risk factors and early detection.
Recommendations:
- There is a pressing need for health initiatives focused on:
- Increasing awareness of cancer prevention and screening methods, particularly for cervical and breast cancers, as early detection significantly improves treatment outcomes.
- Expanding public health campaigns and vaccination programs, especially for HPV, which is vital in preventing cervical cancer.
International Perspective:
- The World Health Organization (WHO) highlights that 30% to 50% of cancers can be prevented through the regulation of risk factors and early detection procedures. Their fact sheet emphasizes that many cancers have a high cure rate if caught early.
Conclusion:
This analytical overview underlines the importance of integrating comprehensive cancer control policies and responsive healthcare systems to limit cancer cases and deaths in India.
Important Sentences:
- India's estimated cancer cases: 15.6 lakh and deaths: 8.74 lakh in 2024, with an 11% lifetime risk.
- Women account for 51.1% of cases but only 45% of deaths, due to the prevalence of more treatable cancers.
- Oral cancer is now the most common cancer in men, surpassing lung cancer, despite decreasing tobacco use.
- Mizoram shows the highest cancer incidence risk at 21.1% for men and 18.9% for women.
- The report signifies the need for improved cancer care and screening programs across India, including in high-incidence regions.
- WHO states 30% to 50% of cancers can currently be prevented through existing preventive measures.
- Focus on awareness and screening can greatly enhance early detection and treatment outcomes.
Economic and Social Development

India's Semiconductor Industry Growth
Summary of the Article on the Semiconductor Industry in India
The article discusses the transformative journey of the semiconductor industry in India, emphasizing its critical role in modern technology and global geopolitics. It reflects on the historical progression from early computing machines to contemporary semiconductor applications that drive various sectors. The Indian government has initiated the “India Semiconductor Mission” aimed at establishing the country as a significant player in the global semiconductor value chain.
Historical Context:
- Initially, computers were enormous machines relying on vacuum tubes; modern chips derive their power from billions of transistors, facilitating advanced technologies from mobile phones to satellites.
- Semiconductors are foundational to numerous industries, including telecommunications, automotive, medical equipment, and defense.
Impact of the Pandemic:
- The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the vulnerabilities within global semiconductor supply chains, which disrupted production across multiple sectors.
Geopolitical Significance:
- Control over semiconductor manufacturing is now a vital aspect of international relations, with supply chains concentrated in specific regions. Minor disruptions can have widespread global repercussions.
- The importance of rare earth magnets is mentioned as a parallel issue, underscoring how resource control affects international power dynamics.
Current Landscape and Future Potential:
- India has over 650 million smartphone users, and the electronics manufacturing sector is valued at Rs 12 lakh crore annually.
- Under the India Semiconductor Mission, 10 semiconductor plants have been authorized, with construction making significant headway. The expectations are set for the first "Made in India" chip to be produced within the year.
Government Initiatives:
- The initiative reflects Prime Minister Narendra Modi's long-term vision for the semiconductor industry. Challenges previously faced in semiconductor production are being addressed through a clearer focus on execution and professional decision-making.
- India accounts for over 20% of the global design workforce, but faces a projected shortage of over one million semiconductor professionals by the early 2030s, which the country is preparing to meet.
Start-ups and Talent Development:
- A substantial effort is underway in nurturing start-ups engaged in chip design, supported by government schemes such as the Design Linked Incentive (DLI).
- Significant capacity building is demonstrated through the Semiconductor Laboratory in Mohali, where students have already designed multiple chips. The government also offers Electronic Design Automation (EDA) tools free of charge to stimulate the industry.
- Major tech firms such as Lam Research and Applied Materials are investing in training programs and research and development efforts in India.
Global Collaborations:
- Partnerships with leading institutions in the US, Japan, EU, and Singapore are being fostered to enhance talent and technology transfer, ensuring India's capabilities can meet both domestic and global needs.
Vision and Future Outlook:
- India’s semiconductor journey aligns with the Digital India initiative, focusing on building essential digital infrastructure and empowering citizens.
- The upcoming Semicon India Summit 2025 illustrates the growing interest from global industry leaders, signaling India as an emerging competitive hub in the semiconductor space.
- The ultimate goal is for India to become a "product nation" where outputs from semiconductor plants cater to both domestic and international markets across critical sectors.
Key Points:
- Semiconductors are central to modern technology and national security.
- India's semiconductor mission seeks to alter its past narrative of dependency.
- The country is preparing to contribute significantly to the global semiconductor workforce.
- Collaboration with global entities enhances India's potential as a semiconductor hub.
- The overall vision is aligned to bolster India's role in the advanced technology landscape.
By focusing on these key aspects, the initiative aims to secure India’s place in the digitized world while catering to the rising demand for semiconductors across various industries over the next decade.
Economic and Social Development

Rupee Depreciation Amid Tariff Concerns
The Indian rupee has reached a record low, declining below the 88-mark against the US dollar, primarily influenced by significant tariff increases imposed by the United States and ongoing foreign fund outflows. Here are the key points and developments related to this currency situation:
Current Status of the Rupee: As of September 1, the rupee fell to an intraday low of 88.33 against the dollar, closing at 88.20 on multiple occasions. The currency traded in a limited range between 87.80 and 88.50, indicating restrained intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).
Reasons for Decline: The primary drivers behind the depreciation include:
- Enactment of a 50% tariff on Indian exports by the US on August 27, which has further aggravated the sentiment among traders.
- Speculative dollar demand, alongside fears over prolonged trade tensions between the US and India.
RBI’s Intervention: The RBI is perceived to be monitoring the forex market closely to prevent excessive volatility rather than targeting a specific exchange rate. Analysts point out that the central bank defended the critical 87.80 level, allowing further depreciation only after the rupee breached the 88-mark.
Market Analysts' Views:
- A weaker rupee could enhance export competitiveness by making Indian goods less expensive for foreign buyers, potentially counteracting the adverse effect of the tariffs.
- Analysts predict continued pressure on the rupee, with short-term trading expected between 87.50 and 88.50. Speculation exists that if pressures persist, the rupee could slide below 90 over the next three to four months.
Foreign Exchange Reserves: India's foreign exchange reserves stand robust at approximately $690.72 billion, providing the RBI with sufficient capacity to manage exchange rate volatility without resorting to abrupt or aggressive interventions.
Economic Outlook:
- The current trade tensions are creating uncertainty that may necessitate a weaker rupee to maintain export competitiveness.
- If a resolution on trade disputes is achieved, it could lead to a rebound in the rupee, potentially returning it to the 86 range.
- Optimism regarding India's Goods and Services Tax (GST) reductions may support consumption and provide a buffer against tariff impacts.
Future Expectations:
- Economic analysts suggest that until a viable resolution to the ongoing trade issues is reached, the rupee is likely to remain under pressure.
- The rupee's trajectory will be determined by international trade policies and domestic economic maneuvers, particularly how effectively the RBI uses its reserves to stabilize the currency.
In summary, the Indian rupee's depreciation amidst escalating US trade tariffs reflects broader economic uncertainties and market reactions. The RBI's cautious approach, combined with robust reserves, indicates a balanced strategy to manage currency stability in the face of international trade challenges.
Important Sentences:
- The rupee has fallen to a record low, dipping below 88 against the dollar.
- The 50% tariff imposed by the US on Indian exports on August 27 caused significant market disruption.
- The RBI is monitoring forex markets to prevent excessive volatility rather than targeting specific exchange rates.
- Analysts expect the rupee to trade between 87.50 and 88.50 in the short term but warn it could slide below 90 if tariff uncertainties persist.
- India's foreign exchange reserves are currently at $690.72 billion, providing flexibility for the RBI.
- A resolution of trade tensions may restore the rupee to approximately 86 against the dollar.
Economic and Social Development

Impact of Global Trade War on India
The recent discussion surrounding the global economy, spearheaded by the Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran, highlights a tumultuous half-decade characterized by significant challenges and strategic recovery pathways for India. Below is a comprehensive summary of the key points covered in the discussion and recent economic developments:
Background of the Economic Situation: The world economy has faced disruptions due to the COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical conflicts, and the escalation of a global trade war.
Key Appointment: V Anantha Nageswaran was appointed CEA less than a month before the Russia-Ukraine conflict escalated in February 2022. He has been granted a two-year extension earlier this year.
Economic Recovery: Under Nageswaran's guidance, the Indian economy has rebounded robustly post-pandemic, achieving a GDP growth of 7.8% in the first quarter of the current fiscal year, solidifying its position as the fastest-growing large economy globally.
Inflation Trends: Headline retail inflation in India has reached its lowest level in eight years, indicating improved economic stability.
Sovereign Credit Rating Upgrade: S&P Global Ratings upgraded India’s sovereign credit rating to 'BBB' last month, marking the first upgrade in 18 years. This indicates increased international confidence in India's economic management.
Trade Tariffs: Despite improvements, challenges remain, especially regarding a cumulative 50% tariff imposed by the US on Indian goods effective from August 27. This has raised concerns particularly for labor-intensive sectors like textiles.
Secondary Economic Effects: While the immediate impact of tariffs on Indian exports appears limited, the anticipated secondary and tertiary effects could pose further economic challenges that need addressing.
Strategic Focus Areas: Nageswaran emphasized the necessity for India to advance efforts in critical sectors such as artificial intelligence (AI) and semiconductor manufacturing to maintain competitiveness against the US and China.
Deregulation and Economic Growth: In the Economic Survey for 2024-25, he underscored the need for deregulation as India's path to industrialization. He also proposed a "tripartite compact" involving the government, private sector, and academia to enhance the distribution of benefits from AI-driven productivity.
Inclusive Growth: His perspectives focus on inclusive growth, addressing challenges related to labor markets and energy transitions to harness overall economic benefits effectively.
Previous Experience: Before taking up the role as CEA, Nageswaran was a part-time member of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (from October 2019) and had prior experience in investment banking and academia across India and Singapore.
Public Engagement: Nageswaran is set to engage further with the public at an Express Adda event in Mumbai, showcasing his emphasis on transparent and inclusive dialogue regarding economic policies.
Highlights:
- The period of global economic disruption has presented substantial challenges, yet India achieves significant growth.
- The Indian economy's resilience is showcased through upgraded credit ratings and strategic initiatives for future growth.
- Addressing repercussions from global trade dynamics and advancing technological sectors remain pressing priorities for sustainable development.
This summary encapsulates the multifaceted approach by the government to navigate complex economic landscapes and indicates a roadmap towards enhanced economic stability and growth.
Economic and Social Development

India's GDP Growth Analysis September 2023
The recent announcement regarding India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has highlighted a notable growth rate of 7.8% for the April-June 2023 quarter, exceeding expectations and reflecting an increase from the previous quarter's figure of 7.4%. However, a deeper analysis of these figures reveals complexities regarding inflation, deflation methods, and underlying economic realities that merit scrutiny.
Key Highlights of the News Article:
GDP Growth Rates:
- The reported real GDP growth rate for April-June 2023 stands at 7.8%, marking the highest growth in five quarters.
- In contrast, the nominal GDP growth rate was recorded at 8.8%, the lowest in three quarters.
GDP Calculation:
- GDP represents the value of finished goods and services, influenced by price levels.
- The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) computes "real GDP" by adjusting nominal GDP using a GDP deflator, derived from wholesale and retail inflation.
Inflation Metrics:
- Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation averaged less than 0.3%, while Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation averaged 2.7%, the lowest in over six years.
- The GDP deflator for this quarter was merely 0.9%, the lowest in approximately six years, resulting in a narrower gap between real and nominal GDP growth rates.
Concerns Over GDP Deflation Methodology:
- Economists from ICICI Securities suggest that the growth figures may be influenced by inadequacies in the deflation process performed by MoSPI, particularly within the services sector.
- They emphasize that a misalignment exists between services sector inflation, which was approximated at 3.4% (over twice the deflator used), leading to an overstated real growth estimation.
Sectoral Analysis:
- While the services sector reported a real growth rate of 9.3%, without considering inflation, this growth could reflect 11.3%, implying potential overestimation.
- The manufacturing sector's growth might be overstated by about 150 basis points due to flawed deflation practices.
Future Predictions:
- WPI inflation registered -0.13% in June and further dropped to -0.58% in July, indicating a sustained decline in wholesale prices.
- With CPI inflation hitting an eight-year low of 1.55% in July, it raises concerns about the continued accuracy of GDP growth figures, as the low deflator may persist in distorting real economic progress.
Expert Opinions:
- Economists indicated that future GDP figures may also experience similar issues, warning of a disconnect between reported GDP growth and actual economic conditions, as signaled by high-frequency economic data.
General Economic Context:
- Real GDP for April-June was estimated at Rs 47.89 lakh crore, while current price GDP was recorded at Rs 86.05 lakh crore.
Summary:
India's economy showcased a notable growth rate of 7.8% in the April-June 2023 quarter, fueled by specific economic activities, but further scrutiny reveals challenges driven by methodological issues in calculating GDP and deflation techniques. The sustained low inflation figures introduce an ongoing concern about the accuracy of real GDP estimates, with significant implications for policymakers and economic planners as they chart future trajectories in response to prevailing economic trends.
Bullet Points:
- India's real GDP growth rate for April-June 2023 reached 7.8%.
- Nominal GDP growth in the same quarter was noted at 8.8%.
- WPI inflation averaged less than 0.3%; CPI inflation averaged 2.7%.
- GDP deflator recorded at 0.9%, the lowest in six years.
- Economists point out flaws in MoSPI's inflation adjustment methodology.
- Understated inflation could result in exaggerated real growth estimates.
- Manufacturing and services sectors face potential over- and underestimations.
- Future GDP growth rates may also reflect similar discrepancies due to low inflation.
- Continued monitoring of wholesale and consumer price trends is crucial for accurate economic assessments.
Economic and Social Development

India's Rising Cancer Care Challenges
Summary:
India has been experiencing a significant cancer burden, ranking third globally in cancer cases according to the Global Cancer Care Observatory Data. In 2022, the cancer mortality to incidence ratio in India reached 64.47%, the highest among the ten countries with the most considerable cancer burden. Cancer care has been a component of India’s national healthcare framework for over five decades, being systematically addressed since the launch of the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) Cancer Registry programme in the early 1980s.
Despite this long-standing focus, the landscape of cancer care in India is complicated and evolving, primarily due to the absence of a comprehensive data framework regarding cancer. An analysis conducted by national investigators, comprising researchers from prestigious medical institutions, of 43 cancer registries across the country, aims to fill some gaps in understanding cancer demographics and risks across regions and genders. Notably, the findings revealed that women constituted 51% of the cancer cases reported, a figure that departs from global trends. This discrepancy is concerning and warrants the attention of policymakers, as it underscores a challenge emphasized by cancer specialists for years.
Breast and cervical cancers, which account for over 40% of female cancer cases, have a higher detection and treatment success rate, suggesting the observed reporting patterns. Conversely, oral, lung, and gastric cancers are often identified at more advanced stages, indicating that many cases may not be reported. The study revealed high instances of oral cancer particularly in the Northeast region of India, with Mizoram exhibiting the highest lifetime cancer risk of 21% for men and nearly 19% for women, significantly above the national average of 11%.
The data highlighted from the ICMR registries, which only encompass less than 20% of India's population, points out significant regional disparities. Unlike infectious diseases, where reporting to the government is mandatory, cancer data reporting lacks a legal framework in many states. Although 17 states have regulations that require hospitals and healthcare providers to relay cancer-related data, populous states such as Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Bihar do not impose such mandates.
The findings from the cancer registry study are crucial as they advocate for improved data collection and reporting. Strengthening cancer data could enhance understanding of preventable cancer causes, optimize resource allocation, and increase the efficacy of governmental healthcare initiatives. These improvements could ultimately lead to a higher cancer survival rate across the country.
Important Sentences:
- India ranks third in the world for the number of cancer cases, with a cancer mortality to incidence ratio of 64.47% in 2022.
- The Indian Council of Medical Research has addressed cancer care within national healthcare programs for over five decades.
- An analysis of 43 cancer registries has revealed that women make up 51% of cancer cases in India.
- Breast and cervical cancers account for over 40% of cases among women and generally have better treatment outcomes.
- A significant burden of oral cancer was noted in regions like India's Northeast, particularly in Mizoram.
- The ICMR registries cover less than 20% of the population, lacking mandatory reporting requirements for cancer data in many states.
- Improved data collection is essential for fostering better understanding of cancer and enhancing government healthcare initiatives, which may improve survival rates.
Health and Medicine